Thinking Diagnostic

You hear a clear, compelling story explaining why something happened (for example, why a company failed, why a policy backfired, or why someone succeeded).

The story fits the sequence of events well and is easy to remember. It highlights motives, decisions, and turning points.

There is some data available, but it’s messy and doesn’t clearly point to a single cause.

How do you explain what happened?

A. The story captures the real cause; it explains how things unfolded. B. One factor in the story probably caused most of the outcome. C. The explanation likely misses important factors that aren’t part of the story. D. The situation is probably shaped by several forces interacting in ways the story can’t capture.